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2030: Dead End for the High Street

ParcelHero Industry Report: 2030: The Death of the High Street

The death of the High Street as we know it may be far nearer than people think. By 2030, just 14 years’ time, the impact of e-commerce and home deliveries will mean the town centre as we know it today, with all its familiar names, will be a memory.

The report finds:

  • Vanishing stores: Between 2020 and 2030 half of the UK’s existing shop premises will have disappeared. In 1950 there were 600,000 stores in the UK, in 2012 there were 290,000 and just 220,000 will survive by 2020. With home deliveries increasing exponentially, the decade from 2020 to 2030 will see a further 100,000 stores as e-commerce grows exponentially, leaving just 120,000 shops on our high street.
  • E-commerce conquers all: By 2030 e-commerce will account for around 40% of all UK retail sales.
  • Tipping Point: Supermarket’s physical store sales will slump from 42% to 24% by 2030: and that’s not enough to remain viable. Many well know store brands will reach tipping point, and will vanish from the high street.
  • Fashion victims: From Austin Reed to Viyella, clothing stores have rapidly disappeared from shop fronts, with Banana Republic set to slip from our streets next. In 2013 alone there was a net loss of 264 fashion stores from our High Street. The online fashion industry could reach £36.2bn by 2030: 63% of the market compared to today’s 21%.
  • Estate of the art: There are 17,972 estate agents on UK High Streets. In 2030 there may be none. The impact of the arrival of Rightmove and Zoopla means there will be little need for expensive town centre premises.
  • Don’t bank on it: As we move to online banking around 9,000 bank and building society branches have been closed since 1989 – and more closures are planned. Names you’ll no longer see on the High Street frontages include the Midland, Abbey National, Bradford & Bingley, The Woolwich, and Alliance & Leicester (some brands survive as bank in-house mortgages).
  • Back to the future: High streets must return to a Victorian model. Shopping should become a more social experience again with local food deliveries increasing: based on Uber-style crowd source Apps. Homes must also return to UK High Streets to prevent no go areas after 6pm.

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