‘Here in the UK, online spending during the Christmas period last year rose to £24.4bn, a 3.7% YoY increase, according to Analyzify. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) recorded that online shopping reached nearly 30% of all UK retail sales in December 2024 and our initial figures indicate that Christmas shipments are already ahead of last year's volumes.

‘Consumers in both the US and the UK are currently experiencing similar concerns about inflation. If UK shoppers follow the predicted example of their US counterparts in putting aside these fears, at least temporarily, then the early UK online Christmas sales forecasts of an increase of just 2.5% look a little low. We believe Brits are likely to shake off the challenges of 2025 with a cheery Christmas, in much the same way as consumers in the US. That’s why Parcelhero is predicting a similar 3.7% online holiday season growth compared to last year.

‘In 2024, UK shoppers spent £3.63bn online from Black Friday to Cyber Monday, which was up 5.2% YoY. We're expecting a similar 5% increase this year, leading to a £3.8bn Black Friday weekend. Overall, we are predicting a £25.3bn online Christmas in the UK, almost £1bn higher than last year.

‘Meanwhile, UK carriers handled an estimated 1.29bn parcels between October–December 2024, a 10% increase YoY. A similar increase this year could mean 1.42bn parcels being delivered by the end of Christmas peak.

‘So far, all the omens look good for a healthy online Christmas in the UK. According to Sensormatic Solutions, 23% of UK consumers had started their Christmas shopping at the beginning of this month, up 2% YoY, in a bid to get ahead and find the best deals.

'Continuing this thriftier approach, a further 59% plan to shop earlier to spread the cost of Christmas over more than one payday. In the US, Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) schemes are expected to drive $20.2bn (£14.9bn) in online spend (up 11% YoY). This increase could even be eclipsed here in the UK. Around 1 in 7 Brits are expecting to use BNPL schemes to help fund their celebrations this year, according to the banking app thinkmoney. That figure could go a lot higher, however. 47% of people said they find BNPL attractive as a way to spread the cost of Christmas, rising to 73% among 25 to 34-year-olds.

‘Brits won’t only be splashing their cash on friends and family this year; they also look set to spend a significant chunk on themselves. According to eBay Advertising UK, almost 1 in 3 UK shoppers say they intend to spend more on presents for themselves than for friends or family at Christmas, jumping to half of Millennials (people aged between 29 and 44 years). With Millennials spending more online than older generations, that bodes well for e-commerce retailers – though not for Millennial’s supposed loved ones.

‘There remains one potential upset to this year’s UK e-commerce Christmas, however, and that is the impact of this year’s Autumn Budget, scheduled for 26 November. So far, the signals are mixed about potential tax rises but any bad news couldn’t come at a worse time for seasonal peak sales. Will shoppers seek to cheer themselves up by splashing out or will they tighten their belts in the wake of gloomy economic news? Black Friday’s spending on 28 November will shed some early light on whether the Budget has dramatically slowed Christmas sales.

‘It's those stores with a combined High Street and online offering that are most protected against unexpected events during the Christmas peak. Parcelhero’s influential report “2030: Death of the High Street” has been discussed in Parliament. It reveals that retailers must develop an omnichannel approach, embracing both online and physical store sales.